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Polyester production and marketing general PTA

Polyester production and marketing general PTA

PTA since entering the second quarter of 2017, especially in May and June of PTA plant, a wide range of maintenance starts remain low, and the downstream polyester capacity utilization has been high.In the three months to inventory stage, plus a constant force 2.2 million tons of petrochemical device restart time is not clear, make the PTA tight supply is expected to extend itself, on July 11, to harden price close, ushered in the stranger's rally.And the emergence of a rare in recent months, the pattern of distant months premium.Since June 5, 2017 to July 11, main 1709 contract from the stage of low 4714 - point rebound 4714 points, up 10.3% for almost a month.Downstream polyester off-season not pale, starts have continued to remain high in July, polyester and no load down trend, social inventory in July is expected to remain low.


Crude oil prices are low, the upstream support slightly insufficient.


Data sources: WIND information tonghui futures research and development department


Dominate Opec production cuts by market, Libya and Nigeria and increase the quantity of output offset Opec production cuts, U.S. oil production increases offset some non-opec production quantity, in addition, Saudi Arabia has excess compliance agreement also relax the yield limit.According to official figures, Saudi Arabia in June 10.07 million barrels of crude oil, is more than the production agreement promises about 12000 barrels of oil.Since this is the performance of the production agreement, Saudi Arabia official production data for the first time at the end of November last year reached 10.058 million barrels a day, while Saudi Arabia 9.88 million barrels of crude oil in May.Since extended cuts in May, oil prices rose, in a short time only and no drops out of the channel, brent crude continued turmoil in below $50 a barrel.In the absence of significant positive stimulus, oil prices could face long time shakeouts.


Because of the weakness in the oil, PX prices is not should be hot polyester prices rose sharply.On the one hand, the PTA capacity utilization is not high, influence the PX demand, on the other hand, in the second quarter of PX maintenance device is not much, in the first quarter of accumulation of inventory is higher.July and August will have equipment maintenance in succession, however, may support the PX prices.In terms of the current, the crude oil and the weak of PX is a big hidden danger influence PTA prices.


PTA periodic inventory effect is remarkable, inventories remained low


Data sources: CCF tonghui futures research and development department


Data sources: WIND information tonghui futures research and development department


In the second quarter of 2017, three months to the inventory stage of accumulative total inventory by around 573000 tons.Thanks to June device centralized maintenance and constant force in late June an annual output of 2.2 million tons of PTA plant restart delay, and downstream polyester high capacity utilization, polyester market off-season does not light.Downstream of the production and marketing of two popular commodity market atmosphere is good, thus stimulating the PTA futures prices.


In addition, according to the market, the domestic spot this supplier in the near future the buyback lead to cash flow is more tighter, leading to rapid convergence basis.As the PTA prices, surging PTA spot processing fee, now nearly one thousand yuan.PTA short-term price rose sharply at the same time if there is no smooth conduction to the downstream, is bound to affect the downstream polyester profits of PTA futures prices drag on.


Polyester off-season not pale, product inventory continues to decline


Data sources: WIND information tonghui futures research and development department


Supply decided to rise and fall, the demand decision level.Economic demand picks up to promote the growing demand for the terminal textile, off-season not pale and demand is stronger than expected in the first half of the polyester market best.1 - June 2017 polyester production amounted to about 19.53 million tons, compared with 17.733 million tons, up 10.13% from a year earlier.Because about 90% of the PTA consumption from polyester, polyester production or PTA consumption of about 17.57 million tons, corresponding to the PTA production of 17.46 million tons, in a tight balance between supply and demand.Since the beginning of July, as the raw material, have appeared in the production and marketing of downstream polyester plant greatly ascend, some companies even oversold phenomenon.Looking forward to the future, in the second half of the polyester plant capacity will have years to accelerate the expansion phase, polyester demand forecast for PTA prices to form a strong support.


Warehouse receipt sharply reduce, starts mismatch power in recent months, litres of water


Data sources: WIND information tonghui futures research and development department


Data sources: WIND information tonghui futures research and development department


Since March 2017, lock the warehouse receipt continues to decrease, from peak to reduce more than thousand copies at present, exchange inventories of about 500000 tons.Dominant inventory decline reflects the strong market demand for PTA.


In addition, we can see that from the aspects of starts in the second quarter of the PTA starts have relatively lower than the same period last year, and polyester capacity utilization has been high.PTA plant maintenance scope is bigger, starts remain low, downstream polyester starts gradually recovered lead to demand picks up, prompted the short-term in recent months, the pattern of distant months premium.


Above all: as currently envisaged, polyester end of season is not weak, polyester capacity continues to remain high, there is no decline, social inventory may continue to fall.But the PX ACP price at $775 a tonne in July, the price is relatively low, with short-term PTA prices rose sharply, the spot processing close to one thousand yuan, the cost of support, high processing fee may cause a lot of hedge plate on the futures price.Considering the current constant force device restart time still not decided, and some of the equipment maintenance hedge in July is about to restart the device, the PTA starts may still be low, short-term tight situation is difficult to ease, which will further support the possibility of market prices continue to rise.